Canadian Liberals in Ontario Freefall

It Just Keeps Getting Worse

How Much Longer Can Paul Martin Hang On?


I just can't imagine what it must be like for American liberals at this point.

First, they (mostly) lose control of this country's government, now their sacred utopia known as Canada is poised to slip from their hands and into Conservative Party control.

Each day the news gets a little bit worse for Prime Minister Paul Martin's scandal-plagued Liberal Party: a shocking new poll shows a major erosion of support in their traditional suburban Toronto strongholds.

The Globe and Mail reports Liberal support has fallen since last year's election by 10 full percentage points in typically sure-bet ridings (parliamentary districts) of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

While last June they enjoyed a comfortable 51% support level over other parties in the GTA, it's now at 41%, with the Conservative Party of Canada now reaching 35%.

To be that close in normally unshakable Liberal areas is shocking.

Think of it this way: imagine if House districts in Massachusetts were suddenly in play for Republicans and you get the idea.

Some of the swing areas are said to be going more Tory by the minute, as fed up Canadians, gear up to dump their corrupt leadership.

We've been following developments from several Canadian bloggers, including Brent Colbert, who is now a candidate for the Tory nomination from one of the Ontario ridings in question, Halton, as well as from CIVITATENSIS and Small Dead Animals.

Additionally, Washington state blogger Josef of Josef's Public Journal has ties to Ontario and is following the Canadian situation carefully from the Northwest. Be sure to monitor his site for the latest.

We'll continue to keep you posted from here as well.


(Globe and Mail- 28 April 2005- Jeff Gray)

With a 10-point slide, coupled with increases for the Conservatives and the NDP, the Liberals become vulnerable in GTA ridings that they won by narrow margins last year, he said.

Tory and NDP strategists said the results suggest that an election, if held soon, could cost the Liberals as many as a dozen seats or more in the GTA.

"That picks up a whole ton of ridings, and puts them right on the very edge," said Peter Van Loan, the Conservative MP for York-Simcoe and the party's national caucus campaign chairman.

Mr. Van Loan said the poll suggests his party could pick up six to eight seats automatically, especially in the so-called 905 belt that once provided the bedrock of support for Mike Harris's provincial Conservatives. Another half dozen, he said, would be too close to call.

Looking just at the 905 region, the poll puts the Liberals and the Conservatives in a virtual tie, with Liberal support at 41 per cent and the Conservatives at 39 per cent. The New Democrats were far behind at 16 per cent.

Mr. Van Loan said Tory sights were set on what he said were winnable 905 ridings such as Halton, Burlington, Oakville, Whitby-Oshawa and Pickering-Ajax.