The Radio Equalizer: Brian Maloney

30 October 2004

Overlooked States May Be The Real Factor

Are you as tired as I am of hearing about Ohio, Pennsylvania and the other "must win" states for Tuesday? I'd like to hear a lot more about states the media is ignoring but are clearly in play.

New Jersey is a prime example. Everyone expects it to go to Kerry on Tuesday, yet polls have shown the race there to be close for many weeks. Who says Bush can't win it?

And how about Hawaii? Two polls in a week showing Bush ahead in the nation's most reliably Democratic state! A Bush win in Hawaii would be earth-shattering politically. I was thrilled to hear that Cheney would be visiting the state on Sunday. Very important.

I think Oregon and amazingly, Washington State, are still in play too. Polls have tightened up in both over the last couple of weeks. Bush is only 4-5 points behind in the two states. A visit and some last minute ad spending could tip the balance. But we are running out of time and many in Oregon have already voted at this point.

I never thought Kerry had a prayer in Nevada, I've lived there and it's no liberal stronghold. In Las Vegas there are traditionally a lot of Union supporters, but Kerry isn't their type of candidate. As for the newcomers, many people moving to Nevada are trying to get the hell away from California liberalism and overtaxation.

The time Bush spent in New Mexico should pay off on Tuesday. That was a state worth fighting for that could have gone either way. As for New Hampshire, if Kerry wins it will be because the Boston-area expats who fled to NH for lower taxes will have put him over the top.


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