Al Franken's Likely US Senate Run

COULD HE WIN?

Measuring Franken's Minnesota Chances







Now that the curtain has almost certainly closed on Al Franken's talk radio career, the big question is what will become of the exiting Air America Radio host, author and alleged comedian.

Conventional wisdom has it that his US Senate run from Minnesota is a near certainty, but is there a Plan B?

We still believe he would prefer the relative income stability of a cable talk show to the risky nature of running for office.

But he's behaved like a candidate for so long that it's simply hard to ignore the elephant (or donkey) in the room.

So what are his chances of victory in Minnesota? At the non- partisan National Journal, analyst Chuck Todd believes that Franken's presence in the race could actually help the otherwise endangered GOP incumbent, Senator Norm Coleman.

How could that happen? Here's his reasoning:

Minnesota (Republican Norm Coleman): Sen.-elect Amy Klobuchar's 20-point blowout win is encouraging to Democrats and worrisome to Republicans. But Democrats would have to be very lucky to avoid a fierce primary for a second cycle in a row.

And Coleman's secret weapon could be Al Franken. If the comedian runs, he's not going to clear the primary field. There are a lot of Democrats who sat out '06 in favor of Klobuchar (like millionaire trial lawyer Mike Ciresi) who probably won't do that again. Franken's presence raises the profile of the race and benefits Coleman financially.

In other words, Franken can't expect a free ride from fellow Democrats, who may have their own ideas about who should take on Coleman.

On the other hand, Franken has played politics much better than he ever performed on talk radio, successfully raising money for his Midwest Values PAC and handing out cash to key Democrat candidates in the region. Quite a few people are going to owe Stuart a favor or two.

But will that be enough to secure the nomination, much less beat Coleman? We shall soon find out.

Franken PAC: David A Lunde

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