Talk Hosts Find Influence Rising During Uncertain 2008 Election Cycle

THE KINGMAKERS

Talkers Enjoy Unprecedented Influence Over Elections







More than any recent election in memory, talk radio hosts are finding themselves positioned perfectly to influence the 2008 candidate- selection process. The increased clout is part of a larger trend, one where talkers have seen their words debated on the US Senate floor, in newspapers and on television news programs.

This year, we've seen tiffs between candidates, their advisers and hosts carried out in full view of the public, harassment of personalities who are known to oppose certain contenders and ongoing speculation as to who will get the backing of key talkers.

In addition, observations of a personal nature, such as a candidate's appearance, have become hotly debated when they come from hosts. And those seeking the presidency (or their spouses) have addressed talkers by name from the trail.

Some crackpots even believe talk hosts are threatening the personal safety of presidential hopefuls.

And behind the scenes, some politicos have even asked your Radio Equalizer whether local hosts could sway primaries in key upcoming states.

At every stage of the game during Election 2008, talk radio has been right in the middle of the action.


On several sites today, there's a crazy guessing game over whether Rush Limbaugh will follow the lead of Sean Hannity and Dennis Miller in supporting Rudy Giuliani. From The Atlantic via Forbes:

After tonight, McCain will be coronated by the mainstream media. He is sure to hold his lead as the betting favorite. But watch Giuliani. Here’s a bet I will make with anyone: The two top-rated conservative radio talk hosts, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, will more or less back Giuliani, as Dennis Miller does-- explicitly-- now. That support will be as key to Giuliani as Oprah Winfrey’s support has been to Obama.

Which is to say, the mainstream media and conventional analysis will be blind to the value of such support--and so, you'll never read about it. But in a tight primary, the Limbaugh-Hannity-Miller factor could make a difference.

Do any of these people actually listen to Rush? He's a leader, not a follower and very unlikely to support Rudy or anyone else during the primaries. He's made that clear on the air.


So the big question is this: why are these hosts so much more important than in the past? Perhaps it's due to an increasing influence that comes with tenure, in additional to larger audiences, thanks to ratings growth.

Another factor is the significant level of public indecision due to wide open races with such a large number of candidates. In the confusion, listeners seem unusually open to hearing those who have strong views on the individual contenders.

While hosts might have more muscle to flex during this election cycle, they should be careful how it is used. Carelessly backing the wrong horse could undermine one's public image, should that hopeful implode on the campaign trail due to gaffes or scandal.

In addition, predictions can prove damaging, as we've seen occur with cable news pundits in recent days. Many wrote Hillary off as finished after her Iowa loss and now look like fools as her base rallied in time to save her.

By contrast, Limbaugh took the opposite view and now seems positively psychic.

Of course, there are competing voices out there also looking to carve their turf, especially in the blogosphere. But that's a topic for another post. For now, keep your eyes on the hosts and the increasing role they are playing in this campaign: there will be plenty of fireworks to come.


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